🔗 Share this article A Prediction Market Trader Earned $Nearly Half a Million on Wagers Predicting Venezuela's Political Shift. In this photo illustration, a Polymarket logo is seen displayed on a smartphone. A trader earned a substantial sum by predicting the removal of Nicolás Maduro immediately preceding it was publicly declared, sparking debate about the possibility of profiting from non-public details of the event. Sudden Shift in Forecasts Bets placed on the crypto-platform, a crypto-powered platform, that Nicolás Maduro would be out of power by the close of the month surged in the time leading up to President Donald Trump announced on the weekend that Maduro had been apprehended. A single trader, which registered on the site in December and placed four wagers, all on Venezuela, earned over $436K from a modest bet of $32,537. Who placed the bet is a mystery. The anonymous account had only a cryptographic address for identification. Probability Spikes Before News Break Platform data shows that users assessed the probability of Maduro's exit at just under 7% in the late afternoon of Friday, January 2nd. Yet the odds had climbed to over 10% by shortly before midnight and spiked dramatically in the early hours of Saturday, suggesting a sharp shift in betting activity just before the official statement was made. "That trade has all the hallmarks of a transaction based on confidential knowledge," said a financial reform advocate. Several of other platform users also earned tens of thousands of dollars from predicting the capture. Regulatory Scrutiny Intensifies Some lawmakers are beginning to pay attention. A new rule presented on Monday would prevent federal workers from participating on prediction markets if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a bet. Industry Context Prediction markets have become increasingly popular in the United States, with traders able to bet on everything from sports to political events. The industry faced scrutiny under the Biden administration. But it has found a more favorable environment during the present political climate. Using confidential knowledge is against the law in the securities markets, but there are fewer regulations in the event betting arena. An official representative for another major platform said their site "strictly forbids such activities of any form."